As of January 1, 2025, the global equity market has a trailing Price-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.61 and a forward P/E ratio of 17.93. These multiples are based on an index comprising 3,000 publicly traded companies from 47 countries. Both ratios exceed long-term historical averages, indicating a potential overvaluation of the global stock market relative to past trends. In 2023, total market earnings declined due to inflation concerns and supply chain disruptions. However, earnings rebounded in 2024, and analysts anticipate strong growth for 2025.
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| Date | Global Equity Markets P/E (TTM) | Global Equity Markets EPS (TTM) * | Global Equity Markets Forward P/E | Global Equity Markets EPS (Forward) * |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2024 | 21.61 | 107.07 | 17.93 | 129.07 |
| 6/30/2024 | 20.97 | 105.20 | 17.46 | 126.32 |
| 12/31/2023 | 20.00 | 99.97 | 16.71 | 119.64 |
| 6/30/2023 | 18.70 | 100.44 | 16.24 | 115.62 |
| 12/31/2022 | 16.19 | 102.83 | 14.70 | 113.23 |
| 6/30/2022 | 16.27 | 100.85 | 13.95 | 117.68 |
| 12/31/2021 | 20.76 | 100.00 | 18.09 | 114.77 |
* The table presents both trailing and forecasted Earnings Per Share (EPS), with values indexed to a base of 100 as of January 1, 2022. EPS (TTM) reflects the aggregate earnings of the global stock market for the past 12 months and is calculated using the net income of the companies. EPS (Forward) is the forecasted (analyst consensus) earnings per share for the next 12 months and is calculated using the estimated operating profit of the companies.
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Global Stock Market Earnings Growth
After a sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, corporate earnings in the global stock market rebounded quicker than expected by most. However, earnings stagnated in 2022 and 2023, impacted by inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty.
Despite this slowdown, 2024 marked a strong year for corporate earnings, driven by improving economic condition and increased consumer spending. The last quarter of 2024 was especially strong, raising positive expectations for the next year.
Looking ahead, 2025 is also expected to be a solid year for earnings growth, despite the uncertainty related to inflation and the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
The global stock market is largely driven by U.S. companies, particularly those in the technology and communications sectors. With continued high expectations surrounding the Magnificent Seven stocks, any negative earnings surprise from these companies could put the overall future performance of the global market at risk.