The table below displays the total market cap-to-GNI (GDP) ratios for the world’s largest economies. This ratio, also known as the Buffett Indicator, can be used to assess a country’s stock market valuation by comparing its current level to historical averages, providing possible insight into potential future returns. As of January 1st, 2026, the market cap-to-GNI ratio for the United States stands at 223.74%, higher than it has ever been.
Our calculations use Gross National Income (GNI) instead of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as GNI reflects an economy’s total income, including earnings from foreign investments.
For the latest data and full historical trends, explore the data subscriptions offered by Siblis Research.
Total Domestic Market Cap to GNI Ratio
| Nation | 12/31/2025 | 6/30/2025 | 12/31/2024 | 6/30/2024 | 12/31/2023 | 6/30/2023 | 12/31/2022 | 6/30/2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 223.74% | 209.32% | 213.01% | 195.00% | 177.94% | 172.80% | 155.43% | 163.02% |
| Canada | 199.20% | 173.93% | 160.18% | 150.26% | 143.60% | 139.70% | 133.94% | 139.97% |
| Australia | 113.21% | 111.15% | 107.99% | 104.85% | 106.95% | 106.55% | 109.72% | 107.29% |
| India | 134.04% | 135.52% | 135.61% | 144.53% | 124.68% | 106.09% | 105.42% | 97.05% |
| Japan | 177.58% | 153.31% | 153.42% | 158.51% | 139.78% | 138.92% | 118.81% | 128.67% |
| South Korea | 144.63% | 108.79% | 88.32% | 115.55% | 111.83% | 109.24% | 94.53% | 100.31% |
| China | 101.69% | 88.07% | 82.61% | 71.37% | 75.61% | 83.43% | 82.43% | 91.49% |
| Taiwan | 325.01% | 257.24% | 276.68% | 296.36% | 233.89% | 222.81% | 189.38% | 203.01% |
| Germany | 53.62% | 53.38% | 47.61% | 46.12% | 46.04% | 47.66% | 43.82% | 43.10% |
| Italy | 51.90% | 46.64% | 40.73% | 40.52% | 37.78% | 35.90% | 33.63% | 31.35% |
| United Kingdom | 98.05% | 90.32% | 88.71% | 90.65% | 89.26% | 89.31% | 98.33% | 103.21% |
Gain full access to our Global Equity Valuations database with the Professional Subscription Plan. 35+ markets/indices. 40+ years of data.
✔ Comprehensive Valuation Metrics – Price-Earnings Ratios (trailing & forward), Earnings Per Share (trailing & forward), CAPE Ratios, Dividend Yields, Market Cap-to-GNI Ratios, Long-Term Interest Rates – Price levels included, analyze market performance in relation to valuations.
✔ Sector Weightings & Breakdowns – Make your own sector-adjustments using your preferred methodology.
✔ Flexible Data Access – Customize data format and delivery method to fit your specific needs.
✔ Explore a sample dataset here.
Global stock market valuations in 2026
Taiwan and the U.S. have seen their ratios explode. Taiwan’s stock market is now worth more than three times what the country earns in a year (325%). The U.S. has also climbed high (223%). This happened because a few massive tech and AI companies have become incredibly valuable, even if the rest of the economy is growing more slowly.
Japan, India, and South Korea Japan and South Korea are catching up. Japan’s ratio jumped because its stock market finally started growing after years of being flat. India is unique because its stock market and its national income are growing fast together, keeping its ratio steady at a high level. This shows that investors are very confident in India’s future.
In places like Germany and Italy, the ratio is low (around 50%). This isn’t because they are poor, but because many of their biggest companies are private and not traded on a stock exchange. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom is the only major market that actually shrank relative to its income. Because the UK has more traditional businesses like banks and oil companies rather than new tech firms, its market hasn’t seen the same “price jump” as others.
The total value of domestic stock market & nation’s economic output
The total market cap (TMC) to GNI ratio, commonly known as the Buffett Indicator, was popularized by Warren Buffett when he described it as the single best measure for the overall stock market valuation level at a given time. In the article published in the Fortune magazine, Mr. Buffett was only talking about the U.S. economy but the same ratio can be applied successfully to almost every other nation in the world.
The ratio is calculated by dividing the total value of a country’s domestic public companies by the nation’s Gross National Income (or GNI).
The ratio can’t be used to directly compare the valuation levels of different nations. Some countries are characterized by a higher portion of publicly listed corporations when some have a larger portion of private or state-owned companies. The current TMC-to-GDI of a country’s stock market needs to be compared to the historical average value of the nation.
TMC-to-GNI & stock market returns
The table above lists the correlations between a country’s monthly TMC-to-GNI ratios for the past 20 years and the corresponding 3-year forward stock market returns. 3-year forward return means the return on investment generated during the following three years starting from the day the investment is done. The returns are based on the most followed stock index of a country’s exchange. The correlations suggest strong negative relationship between the ratio and stock market returns for almost all of the countries: when the cap-to-GNI is higher than historical averages, the stock returns are going to be lower. This would suggest that TMC-to-GNI ratio is a powerful indicator of market valuations even though it offers no insights for short-term market movements.
However, a word of caution is in order. The correlation calculations include the period of the 2008 financial crisis when both the stock returns and GNI of practically all of the nations in the world were plummeting and the after-crisis period of fast recovery of both economic activity and share prices. If these periods are excluded, the correlations are slightly weaker but still more than significant. It is highly recommended for every investors to pay close attention to the cap-to-GNI ratios.
Shortcomings of the Buffett Indicator
Dr. Ed Yardeni has pointed out some possible shortcomings of using the ratio to estimate the current market valuations. One potential problem is that Buffett Indicator does not take account structural changes in profit margins caused by e.g. changing tax rates, lower interest rates or technological innovations. Especially technological advances have often been expected to lift corporate profits to a entirely new level but the evidence for this has remained mixed. As Dr. Yardeni states, there is no perfect indicator and stock valuation is always somewhat subjective. The best option is to follow multiple metrics and make your own conclusions about them.
Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Income & Gross National Product
The most common practice is to use GDP when calculating the cap-to-economy ratio but using Gross National Income (GNI) gives more accurate results. GDP takes only account the domestic economic activity inside a country. GNI also includes interest & dividend payments and profits from assets received outside of the boarders of a country.
GNI = GDP + Net Income from Abroad
In majority of the cases, the difference between GDP and GNI is quite minor. In 2024, the GNI of US was $29,243 billion and GNP was $29,298 billion. This means that the outflow and inflow of income is balanced. The same is true for majority of the nations but there are exceptions. One notable case is Ireland that used generous tax policies to lure many multinational corporations to set up their headquarters to the country. The GNI of Ireland is 20% lower than its GDP.
Gross National Product (GNP) and GNI are quite similar concept and there are only small differences in the way they are calculated. The main difference is that GNI takes account income and taxes earned also by citizens permanently living abroad while GNP only measures the earnings of domestic citizens. The GNI has largely replaced the use of GNP since the World Bank begin calculating and publishing GNI figures instead of GNP numbers.